Figures released by the DRDB (Digital Radio Development Bureau) show household penetration of DAB digital radio in the UK is set to reach 58.5% by the end of 2011.

The DRDB’s new five-year forecast puts household penetration at 21% by the end of 2007, and 30% by the end of 2008, rising to 40% in 2009, 50% in 2010, and 58.5% by the end of 2011.

DAB sales success will continue in the key sectors of domestic portables and audio systems, while significant growth is already happening in clock radios.

• By the end of 2008, DAB’s share of domestic portables will grow to around 69% of all sales by volume and 90% by value.

• By the end of 2008, DAB’s share of personal stereos will grow to around 40% of all sales by volume and nearly 70% by value.

• By the end of 2008, DAB’s share of audio systems will grow to around 27% of all sales by volume and 32% by value.

• By the end of 2008, DAB’s share of clock radios will grow to around 28% of all sales by volume and over 50% by value.

There are indications from many sources – Rajar, Ofcom, BBC, RadioCentre – that the traditional face of radio listening is changing. This is impacting significantly on the overall radio set sales market (analogue and DAB) with certain form factors, such as boomboxes, audio systems and personals, in decline, while others, such as MP3 players and docking stations (with radio included) are on the rise.

The above figures represent a base case scenario, but could increase significantly if DAB finds a good foothold in new form factors such as MP3/MP4 devices, adaptors, docking stations and, especially, mobile phones.

Says DRDB chief executive, Ian Dickens: “A number of manufacturers are already starting to see the value of adding DAB digital radio to some of these new form factors. While it is important to continue to see successful growth in traditional radio products, DAB’s longer-term future lies in the penetration of these new products, along with in-car and mobile phones. Over the coming months, the DRDB will be changing its shape and focus to ensure that radio moves swiftly down this road.”

By the end of 2007, there will be around 6.6 million DAB radios in UK homes and a household penetration of 21%. These numbers, and the forecast released today, are important indicators for Ofcom, which is currently considering a plan for analogue radio switch-off. The forecast is also designed to help manufacturers plan their product roadmaps according to potential market opportunities and retailers to maximise the depth and breadth of product available to consumers. It can also help broadcasters to plan future digital investment and marketing strategies to grow digital listenership.

Listening to DAB digital radio is growing fast. The latest Rajar report (Q2 07) proved that DAB is rapidly moving from a fringe listening platform of under a million listeners in 2003, to a mass market proposition with 6.1 million listeners in 2007. The same report showed that over 20% of adults live in a DAB household and 74 million hours a week are spent listening to DAB digital radio. Eight new national DAB services from 4 Digital Group are expected to launch in 2008, along with a dozen new local and regional multiplexes.